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Scotiabank economist Derek Holt argues that US President-elect Donald Trump's demand that allies spend 5% of their GDP on defense this month will make the Western Hemisphere less secure, less reliable and more vulnerable. Canada currently spends about 1.25%, or C $40 billion per year. Holt calculates that raising this to 2% of NATO commitments would be equivalent to C $60 billion per year if implemented immediately, even though Canada has committed to 2...
Scotiabank economist Derek Holt says there are reasons for companies and markets to be very cautious about the future after the U.S. election. A surge in protectionism will almost certainly cloud the global economic outlook, becoming a headwind for U.S. and global growth. "Fiscal stimulus to the U.S. economy with excess demand will again trigger inflation risks and higher yields. The mixed effect of tax cuts and spending cuts is uncertain, but the former may exceed the post...
Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said that if Republican candidate Trump wins the US Presidential Election on November 5, the dollar and the US stock market could rise, at least at first. Trump said in an interview with the media last week that there is a higher risk that he will raise tariffs faster than during his first presidency. However, the dollar's nearly 4% gain in October suggests that this has been digested and could limit the dollar's gains. If Trump wins, the euro could fall bel...
Derek Halpenny, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ, said the dollar was unlikely to continue falling even if the Fed hinted that a rate cut could come soon. Recent price movements suggest that the link between Treasury yields and the exchange rate is decoupling, while fragile risk appetite supports demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar. Therefore, any dollar depreciation caused by the signal of a rate cut will not last long, especially if the September rate cut has been fully digested by the...
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